Will American break apart in next 50 years? Yes, says me

[Phidippides]

I have my reasons for this which I should probably detail in a longer-form blog post, but I can't see it ending any other way.  America is doomed to break apart.  The cultural divide is simply too great to sustain a unified nation.  Think of any nation that has emerged through history, and it typically centers around a common culture.  We are entering an age when this common culture still exists, but it is being stretched so far that we are starting to see some cracks. 

Will this end in civil war?  I certainly hope not.  My hope is that some sort of peaceful separation is reached, though this might be a pipe dream.  When it comes down to the details, which side woudl want to give up the rich oil reserves of the South?  Who would get the rich farmland of the Midwest?  What about the major port cities?  This would have such a dramatic impact on the global economy that I have to imagine some people would want to commandeer the division to their choosing. 

But really, what is the alternative?  A single country existing in which one side is content to censor, fine, and probably even jail (or execute) those on the other side of the political spectrum (and if you don't believe me, these kinds of things are already happening, or being suggested)?

Hundreds of years ago people rebelled against political authorities over political disagreements involving autonomy and power disparities.  Today the powers that be have the potential to have vastly more control over the lives of individuals.  That can only last for so long.

[Donald Baker]

Yes America will break apart.  The fractures in American society are becoming more pronounced with each passing day.  It has nothing to do with Donald J. Trump either.  The divides were there to begin with, and the unique figure that Trump is only brings them to the forefront in little jabs and agitations.  The real powder keg issues are abortion, gun control, and gay marriage.  America nearly fell apart during the 1960's and the Vietnam Era still not that long ago.  The Silent Majority who elected Trump have laid down the gauntlet to the Left, and now are emboldened to speak out against political correctness and other rubbish.  On the other side is Antifa, Black Lives Matter, the socialists, and the other fringe alternative leftist groups who cannot stand Christianity or the traditional American heritage/ethos.

[Phidippides]

As dangerous as Anitifa and some others can be, I think they're actually less dangerous to other on the left who may want to manipulate the American electorate.  I'm thinking of the people who seem to have pulled the strings behind the scenes in the months after the election and before the Inauguration, and then into Trump's Presidency.  It was pretty bad how much leaking went on in those early days, and I can't but help think they were done to help cripple Trump's mandate. 

[Phidippides]

I'm going to add this story to the mix:

David Horowitz: Visa, Mastercard Cut Off Payments to My Think Tank Based on SPLC ‘Hate Group’ Label

This is alarming because it could signal a trend.  Once a group is deemed a "hate group", it is considered evil and must be destroyed, and the means of doing so are secondary to the goal of destruction.  The trick, of course, is branding your enemy as part of the "hate group" in the first place. 

Could all conservative groups be branded as "hate groups" in the future?  The threshold for being branded as such has fallen to the level that it is now a crime to have fundamental disagreements with the left on issues such as the immorality of homosexual behavior.  I don't see why not. 

If all conservative groups are considered evil, then will companies stop doing business with them?  If Visa and Mastercard won't process your sales, how could you realistically survive?  Could the grocery story decide to stop serving those groups? 

It's a brilliant tactic by the left: defeat your enemies by not by superior ideas, but by making it impossible for them to operate in public. 

This brings to mind the state of the Puritans during the Stuart period, fleeing their homeland to find refuge elsewhere.  Will this happen again?

[Donald Baker]

As long as the right has independent outlets and media personalities like Rush Limbaugh, I don't think there is much the Left can do.  The liberals have always dominated academia, entertainment, and the print/tv media.  The internet is too large for them to totally control and talk radio still has Rush, Hannity, Buchannan, Beck, Carlson, Lahren, etc... to speak on behalf of the Right.  I'm not too worried at this time.  Besides, they are too busy trying to impeach Trump lol.

[Phidippides]

Victor Davis Hanson has an article out:

Are We on the Verge of Civil War?

He doesn't really answer the question he poses, though.  But what I found great was the first comment by "Vitorious", that begins:

To my fellow progressives:
If there is a civil war, we need to map a few things out. First, there are more guns in the country than people, we own almost none of them. The other side is well armed and motivated, they actually use their firearms so that's something we need to catch up on...

Funny.

[Donald Baker]

The only hope that the Left would have to win a shooting war would be to take control of the government and use the army against the populace or invite the UN to invade with a coalition of foreign armies.

[Donald Baker]

Looks like our country is going to ve transformed without a shot being fired.  We live in very troubling times.

[Donald Baker]

So Does America splinter in the next decade now that Roe v Wade has been overturned?  Or will it be sooner if Trump finds his way back into office in 2024?

[Phidippides]

Re-reading this thread from four years ago, it seems almost prophetic.  In fact, nothing about the original prediction has changed; we're just closer to a national division.

It does make one wonder, though, for how long this will drag on.  Could America be in a state of a "warm war" for another ten years?  Or more?  I'm referring to harsh and nasty political in-fighting, vigilante attacks, jailing political rivals, weaponizing law enforcement, and political moves that effectively destroy American government (e.g. packing the court).  I don't know the U.S. Civil War well enough to know how long things dragged on at an elevated rate before Harper's Ferry.

[Donald Baker]

Re-reading this thread from four years ago, it seems almost prophetic.  In fact, nothing about the original prediction has changed; we're just closer to a national division.

It does make one wonder, though, for how long this will drag on.  Could America be in a state of a "warm war" for another ten years?  Or more?  I'm referring to harsh and nasty political in-fighting, vigilante attacks, jailing political rivals, weaponizing law enforcement, and political moves that effectively destroy American government (e.g. packing the court).  I don't know the U.S. Civil War well enough to know how long things dragged on at an elevated rate before Harper's Ferry.

Democrats are already setting the stage for a Civil War if we have a hung election.  Bill Gates believes this.

[Phidippides]

Democrats are already setting the stage for a Civil War if we have a hung election.  Bill Gates believes this.

I think the ball is pretty much in the hands of left right now.  They are tired of democracy because it doesn't allow them to achieve their objectives.  It hasn't for a while, which is why their main political agenda is to promote fear (of Trump, of mythical "white supremacists", of climate change, etc.). 

With this in mind, if the left wanted to abolish democracy, all it would have to do is to push people on the right far enough that at least some people react in rebellion.  Eventually, someone will react violently.  Even if it's a small rebellion (with 100 people or so), the left could use this as an excuse to crack down on the right completely, arrest GOP congressmen, perhaps suspend elections, etc. 

[Donald Baker]

So you seem to be indicating provocation and even False Flags will be used to bait the Right into open rebellion so the Left, while still in power, can use whatever excuse they can come up with to suspend our Republic so they can crush dissent and remain in power perpetually?

[Phidippides]

Yes.  Consider these realities:

1) The J6 riots were relatively minor in terms of damage, and rioters caused no loss of life.  While conceding that the symbolic effect was high, the actual harm committed was quite low.  Nevertheless, the political left treated is disproportionately for political theater, even going so far as to claim it was "worse than 9/11".

2) We now know of at least some involvement of the federal government in the J6 riot.  The full extent is unknown at this time, but it appears that there was likely some instigation that is being hidden from public knowledge.

3) We know that the J6 riot served as a pretext for a massive crackdown on Democrats' political opponents.  This crackdown was not limited to hunting down those who committed felonies, but those who either committed very minor infractions, and in some cases, those who do not seem to have broken any laws at all.

4) We know the media plays an instrumental role in exaggerating events in order to favor a left-leaning worldview, while also excluding facts and storylines that would favor a reality-based worldview.  The power of the media in shaping public opinion is extremely high, and the political disposition of the media seems to be further and further to the left.   

5) We also know that the left is able to advance its policies most effectively in times of crisis or tragedy.  Consider how voting rules during COVID were modified to benefit Democratic candidates, or how gun restrictions gain the most support by politicians (even some Republicans) in the aftermath of mass shootings.

Put these all together, and we have a potential playbook for the left going forward.  They can have the federal government instigate some sort of event (#2) that is even somewhat minor in the scheme of things (#1), the media will attempt to craft public opinion about the event (#4), and the political left will be able to mobilize the federal government to target dissent (#3).  In addition, a strong psychological reaction by the public would create widespread support for laws or federal policies that institutionalize objectives that the left would not be able to do in normal times (#5).